A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
