A mere eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the wins have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has put together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
